Still Paying 50% Taxes in NYC?

I’m in a group chat with some of South Florida’s heaviest hitters—developers, lenders, and brokers. Yesterday, the pleasantries stopped, and a serious wager was placed.

The Bet: Are we heading for a 50% crash, or is Miami a strong buy?

Here is the Bull vs. Bear breakdown from the trenches:

🐻 The Bear Case (Credit people always worry)

- The Vibe: "I’m hearing from hedge fund managers who are getting sweaty."
- The Catalyst: Private credit is shaking. The "loan-to-own" lenders are watching portfolios wobble.
- The Strike Zone Downtown and Edgewater and secondary areas further north. Oversupply meets nervous capital.
- The Bear Put: "If I lose, I buy you dinner. If I win, I’m buying penthouses for 50 cents on the dollar."

🐂 The Bull Case (The "Cash Box" Reality)

- The Defense: "Show me the evidence."
- The Math: At 50% off, you are buying way below replacement cost. Construction isn’t getting cheaper.
- The Leverage: This isn't 2008. No "liar loans." Most inventory is owned by South Americans who paid cash. They treat condos like safety deposit boxes; they don't need to sell. If they have a loan, they pay under 4% and will HODL!
- The Safe Zones: You might see blood in commodity condos, but Coconut Grove, Key Biscayne, and South of 5th are supply-constrained and holding strong.

The Zinger of the Chat: "If I had a time machine, I wouldn't be arguing about condos, I would have bought Nvidia."

Which side are you on? Dumping your beach condo or on the hunt for a new one?